According to a notable technical analyst, the recent Bitcoin price drop significantly deteriorated the case for a pending market reversal, signaling that bulls must do a significantly greater amount of work in order to reverse the persisting bear market.
Rob Sluymer of Fundstrat Global Advisors first claimed that Bitcoin bulls must defend $6,800 and $6,600 a day before the major price drop, where Bitcoin fell from nearly $7,400 to its current levels of $6,400. Sluymer theorized that a drop below the “crucial” $6,600 level would likely lead to a retest of Bitcoin’s year-to-date lows around the $6,000 level.
While speaking to MarketWatch following the massive price drop, Sluymer said that the price drop was “a very damaging drop,” adding that there is little evidence of a strong setup for Bitcoin from a technical analysis standpoint.
“There is no strong technical setup for bitcoin, we remain with lower lows and lower highs. If you do [day trade], you have to have a tight stop,” Sluymer added.
Events That Will Likely Affect Bitcoin’s Near-Term Pricing
As Bitcoin’s volatility begins to tighten, it is setting lower highs on each temporary rally, but this will only last so long and it is very likely that it will soon break this tightening range depending on upcoming news events.
Many news outlets, including Bloomberg, attributed the recent Bitcoin price drop to news that banking giant Goldman Sachs was ending plans to open a Bitcoin trading desk, but this news turned out to be entirely false, with Goldman Sachs’ CFO, Marty Chavez, calling the claim “fake news.”
“I think one of the wonderful things about us is that we get written about a lot. I never thought I would hear myself use this term, but I really have to describe that news as fake news,” Chavez said while responding to the reports.
Although it is unclear if investors actually care about Goldman’s Bitcoin ventures, a trading desk is a natural first step into the crypto markets for a financial institution, and the potential closing of these desks would signal a lack of institutional interest in the markets.
Regardless, the most pressing news that is likely to impact the markets is regarding the upcoming U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ruling on the CBOE VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF, which could send the market into a rally or a tailspin depending on the decision.
Recently, the SEC denied multiple Bitcoin ETF applications, and the market didn’t flinch, showing that it has developed realistic expectations and a numbness to negative news. However, no investors and/or analysts expected those ETF applications to be approved, whereas crypto investors almost universally believe that the CBOE VanEck/SolidX ETF is the most likely application to be approved.
Many industry experts believe that the most likely outcome for the CBOE application will be that the SEC postpones it until later this year, mainly due to their lack of understanding of cryptocurrencies and the lack of regulatory clarity.
Abra’s CEO, Bill Barhydt, is betting that the approval comes sometime within the next year, saying that “it’s going to happen in the next year, I would actually make a bet on it. There is too much demand for it.”
Cryptocurrency investors should be expecting a large move in the markets, for better or for worse, in the coming months as global regulatory measures unfold, and as the likelihood of institutional funds entering the markets through retail products (like an ETF) becomes clearer.